Squeeze Go Momentum Pro [KingThies] █ OVERVIEW
The Squeeze Momentum Pro indicator identifies volatility compression phases and breakout opportunities by comparing Bollinger Bands to Keltner Channels. When price consolidates (squeeze), the bands contract inside the channels, signaling an imminent breakout. The momentum histogram shows directional bias, helping traders anticipate which way price will move when the squeeze releases.
This indicator displays in a separate panel below the price chart, providing clear visual signals without cluttering price action.
█ KEY FEATURES
Momentum Histogram
The histogram is the primary visual element, displaying momentum strength and direction with four distinct color states:
• Dark Green (#00C853) — Strong bullish momentum that is increasing. This signals strengthening upward pressure and potential continuation.
• Light Green (#26A69A) — Bullish momentum that is decreasing. Price remains in bullish territory but upward force is weakening.
• Dark Red (#D32F2F) — Strong bearish momentum that is increasing. This signals strengthening downward pressure and potential continuation.
• Light Red (#EF5350) — Bearish momentum that is decreasing. Price remains in bearish territory but downward force is weakening.
The color intensity provides immediate feedback on momentum strength and trend health.
Squeeze State Indicator
Colored dots on the zero line communicate the current volatility state:
• Orange Dots — Squeeze is ON. Bollinger Bands have contracted inside Keltner Channels, indicating consolidation and low volatility.
A breakout is building and traders should prepare for directional movement.
• Green Dots — Squeeze is OFF. Bollinger Bands have expanded outside Keltner Channels, indicating active momentum and higher volatility.
Price is moving with conviction in the current direction.
• Gray Dots — Neutral state. The bands are transitioning between squeeze states.
Release Triangles
Triangle shapes mark the exact bar when a squeeze releases, providing precise entry timing:
• Green Triangle Up — Bullish squeeze release. The squeeze has ended with positive momentum, suggesting a long setup opportunity.
• Red Triangle Down — Bearish squeeze release. The squeeze has ended with negative momentum, suggesting a short setup opportunity.
Information Panel
A compact dashboard in the top-right corner displays real-time trading intelligence:
• Squeeze Status — Current state: ON, OFF, or NEUTRAL with color coding
• Momentum Direction — Current bias: BULL or BEAR
• Momentum Value — Precise numerical reading of momentum strength
• Trading Signal — Actionable status: LONG SETUP, SHORT SETUP, WAIT, or MONITOR
Configurable Parameters
All calculation inputs are adjustable to match your trading style and timeframe:
• BB Length — Bollinger Bands period (default: 20)
• BB StdDev — Bollinger Bands standard deviation multiplier (default: 2.0)
• KC Length — Keltner Channels period (default: 20)
• KC ATR Multiplier — Keltner Channels range multiplier (default: 1.5)
• Momentum Length — Linear regression period for momentum calculation (default: 20)
Alert System
Four alert conditions notify you of critical trading opportunities:
• Bullish Squeeze Release — Squeeze has released with bullish momentum, indicating a potential long entry
• Bearish Squeeze Release — Squeeze has released with bearish momentum, indicating a potential short entry
• Squeeze Started — Volatility compression detected, prepare for upcoming breakout
• Squeeze Ended — Volatility expansion confirmed, breakout is active
█ TRADING METHODOLOGY
The indicator follows a clear four-step process for identifying and trading squeeze breakouts:
1 - Wait for Orange Dots . When orange dots appear on the zero line, a squeeze is building. This indicates price consolidation and declining volatility.
Do not enter trades during this phase. Instead, prepare by identifying key support and resistance levels and potential breakout directions.
2 - Watch for Release Triangle . When a triangle appears, the squeeze has released and a breakout is beginning. This is your entry signal.
The triangle color (green up or red down) combined with the histogram direction indicates the breakout direction.
3 - Confirm with Histogram Direction . Check the momentum histogram for directional confirmation:
• Green histogram + green triangle up = Go long. Bullish momentum supports upward breakout.
• Red histogram + red triangle down = Go short. Bearish momentum supports downward breakout.
4 - Monitor Momentum Intensity . Stay in the trade while histogram bars maintain their dark, intense color.
When colors lighten (dark green to light green, or dark red to light red), momentum is weakening and you should consider taking profits or tightening stops.
█ INTERPRETATION GUIDE
Squeeze Detection Logic
A squeeze occurs when Bollinger Bands contract inside Keltner Channels. This happens when:
• Standard deviation of price decreases (BB narrows)
• Price consolidates within a tight range
• Volatility compresses to unsustainable levels
The orange dots signal this condition, warning traders that explosive movement is imminent.
Squeeze Release Logic
A squeeze releases when Bollinger Bands expand outside Keltner Channels. This happens when:
• Price volatility increases sharply
• Price breaks out of consolidation
• Volume typically expands (check volume separately)
The green dots and release triangles signal this condition, indicating the direction and timing of the breakout.
Momentum Reading
The histogram uses linear regression to calculate momentum relative to the midpoint of the recent range:
• Above Zero : Price is trading above the range midpoint with bullish pressure
• Below Zero : Price is trading below the range midpoint with bearish pressure
• Increasing Bars : Momentum is strengthening in the current direction (darker color)
• Decreasing Bars : Momentum is weakening in the current direction (lighter color)
█ BEST PRACTICES
• Timeframe Selection — The indicator works on all timeframes but performs best on 15-minute to daily charts.
Lower timeframes may produce more false signals due to noise.
• Confluence Trading — Combine squeeze releases with support/resistance levels, trend lines, or other indicators for higher probability setups.
• Volume Confirmation — Check that squeeze releases occur with increasing volume. Low volume breakouts are more likely to fail.
• Multiple Timeframe Analysis — Check higher timeframes for overall trend direction. Trade squeeze releases that align with the larger trend.
• Parameter Adjustment — Increase BB and KC lengths for smoother signals on higher timeframes. Decrease for more sensitive signals on lower timeframes.
█ LIMITATIONS
• The indicator does not predict breakout direction before the squeeze releases. The momentum histogram provides bias but is not definitive until the breakout occurs.
• False breakouts can occur, particularly in choppy or low-volume market conditions. Always use proper risk management and stop losses.
• The indicator works best in trending markets. In deeply ranging markets with no clear direction, squeeze signals may be less reliable.
• Momentum calculations use linear regression which can lag during extremely fast price movements. Confirm signals with price action.
█ NOTES
This implementation uses linear regression for momentum calculation rather than simple moving averages, providing more responsive and accurate directional signals. The four-color histogram system gives traders nuanced feedback on momentum strength that binary color schemes cannot provide.
The indicator automatically adjusts to any symbol and timeframe without modification, making it suitable for stocks, forex, crypto, and futures markets.
█ CREDITS
Squeeze methodology inspired by John Carter's TTM Squeeze indicator. Momentum calculation and visual design optimized for modern trading workflows.
"take profit" için komut dosyalarını ara
ETH Short-Term VWAP+EMA/RSI (ATR Risk, <1h) (James Logan)ETH Short-Term VWAP + EMA / RSI Strategy (ATR-based Risk Control)
A short-term (< 1 hour) ETH trading system designed for intraday scalps and momentum swings on 5- to 15-minute charts.
It blends trend confirmation (EMA 50 / 200) with intrabar structure (EMA 21 pullback & VWAP filter) and RSI momentum triggers, managing exits dynamically through ATR-based stop, take-profit, and trailing stop targets.
Core logic
• Long when RSI crosses above the threshold within an up-trend (EMA 50 > EMA 200) and price is above VWAP.
• Short when RSI crosses below threshold within a down-trend (EMA 50 < EMA 200) and price is below VWAP.
• Optional pullback confirmation to the 21-EMA for cleaner entries.
• Risk defined by ATR-multiples for stop-loss, take-profit, and an adaptive trailing stop.
• Automatic flat-out exit after a set number of bars (time-based close).
Best use
• 5 min – 15 min ETH/USDT charts (Binance, Bybit, Coinbase, etc.)
• Works with both spot and perpetual data.
• Tune ATR and RSI thresholds per venue; defaults are balanced for 0.05 % per-side fees.
Key parameters
• ATR SL × 1.6 ATR TP × 2.2 ATR Trail × 2.0
• RSI 50 cross | EMA 50/200 trend filter | VWAP confirmation
• Default position sizing = USD-based (e.g. $1 000 per trade).
Notes
• All orders and exits are simulated at bar close; use 1-minute bar magnifier for finer fill modeling.
• No repainting—uses only confirmed bar data.
• Best validated with ≥ 200 trades and profit factor > 1.25 over multi-month backtests.
Final Scalping Strategy - RELAXED ENTRY, jangan gopoh braderEMA Scalping System (MTF) Guide (1HR direction, 15 min entry)
Objective
To capture small, consistent profits by entering trades when 15-minute momentum aligns with the 1-hour trend.
Trades are executed only during high-liquidity London and New York sessions to increase the probability of execution and success.
Strategy Setup
Chart Timeframe (Execution): 15-Minute (M15).
Trend Filter (HTF): 1-Hour (H1) chart data is used for the long-term EMA.
Long-Term Trend Filter: 50-Period EMA (based on H1 data).
Short-Term Momentum Signal: 20-Period EMA (based on M15 data).
Risk
Metric: 14-period ATR for dynamic Stop Loss calculation.
✅ Trading Rules🟢
Long (Buy) Entry Conditions
Session: Must be within the London (0800-1700 GMT) or New York (1300-2200 GMT) sessions.
HTF Trend: Current price must be above the 1-Hour EMA 50.
Momentum Signal: Price crosses above the 15-Minute EMA 20.
Confirmation: The bar immediately following the crossover must close above the 15-Minute EMA 20.
Ent
ry: A market order is executed on the close of the confirmation candle.
🔴 Short (Sell) Entry Conditions
Session: Must be within the London (0800-1700 GMT) or New York (1300-2200 GMT) sessions.
HTF Trend: Current price must be below the 1-Hour EMA 50.
Momentum Signal: Price crosses below the 15-Minute EMA 20.
Confirmation: The bar immediately following the crossover must close below the 15-Minute EMA 20.
Entry: A market order is executed on the close of the confirmation candle.
🛑 Trade Management & Exits
Stop Loss (SL): Placed dynamically at 2.0 times the 14-period ATR distance from the entry candle's low (for Buys) or high (for Sells).
Take Profit (TP): Placed dynamically to achieve a 1.5 Risk-Reward Ratio (RR) (TP distance = 1.5 x SL d
istance).
📊 On-Chart Visuals
Detailed Labels: A box appears on the entry bar showing the action, SL/TP prices, Risk/Reward in Pips, and the exact R:R ratio.
Horizontal Lines: Dashed lines display the calculated SL (Red) and TP (Green) levels while the trade is active.
Background: The chart background is shaded to highlight the active London and New York tradi
ng sessions.
Confirmed Momentum QQQ (RSI/MACD Filter)Gemini and Myself,
How This Targets a Higher Win Rate
The key to the win rate increase is the RSI 20/80 filter.
Long Signal: A long entry is now only taken if the trend is up (SMA cross), the MACD is bullish, and the RSI is not overbought (below 80). By only entering when momentum is not yet exhausted, you increase the chance that the price can travel far enough to hit your 4.0 point Take Profit.
Wider SL: The wider Stop Loss of 2.5 points reduces the chance of being stopped out prematurely by routine market movements (whipsaws), which is the number one killer of win rates in high-frequency trading.
After applying these changes, you will need to run the Strategy Tester again to see the new win rate and the new total number of trades.
Would you like me to help you interpret the new Strategy Tester results once you apply these settings?
Elliott Wave Expert AdvisorElliott Wave Expert Advisor - Professional Wave Analysis Tool
OVERVIEW
--------
The Elliott Wave Expert Advisor is a comprehensive Pine Script indicator designed for TradingView that automates Elliott Wave analysis and generates high-probability trading signals. Built on Ralph Nelson Elliott's Wave Principle, this indicator identifies impulse wave patterns, validates them against strict Elliott Wave rules, and provides precise entry points with calculated risk management levels.
CORE FUNCTIONALITY
------------------
1. TREND DETECTION
- Dual Moving Average system (Fast/Slow MA)
- MACD confirmation for trend strength
- Automatic trend classification (Uptrend/Downtrend/Sideways)
- Only generates signals aligned with main trend
2. SWING POINT DETECTION
- Automatic pivot high/low identification
- Configurable sensitivity (lookback periods)
- Minimum swing size filtering to reduce noise
- ZigZag visualization connecting swing points
3. WAVE IDENTIFICATION
- 5-wave impulse pattern recognition (1-2-3-4-5)
- 3-wave corrective pattern detection (A-B-C)
- Wave labels displayed on chart
- Color-coded validation status (Blue = Valid, Orange = Pending)
4. ELLIOTT WAVE RULES VALIDATION
Strictly enforces three cardinal rules:
- Rule 1: Wave 2 never retraces more than 100% of Wave 1
- Rule 2: Wave 3 is never the shortest impulse wave
- Rule 3: Wave 4 never overlaps Wave 1 price territory
5. FIBONACCI ANALYSIS
- Automatic Fibonacci retracement calculations (23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 78.6%)
- Fibonacci extension projections (100%, 161.8%, 261.8%)
- Wave 3 and Wave 5 target projections
- Fibonacci-based Take Profit levels
6. SIGNAL GENERATION
- Entry signals at Wave 2 completion (catch Wave 3)
- Entry signals at Wave 4 completion (catch Wave 5)
- Automatic Stop Loss placement below/above pivot points
- Multiple Take Profit targets (TP1 at 1.618 extension, TP2 at Wave 5 projection)
- Risk/Reward ratio calculation and filtering
- Minimum R:R threshold (default 1.5:1)
7. VISUAL ELEMENTS
- Pivot markers (H/L) showing swing highs and lows
- ZigZag lines connecting swing points
- Wave number labels (1-2-3-4-5) with validation colors
- Entry signal arrows (Green = BUY, Red = SELL)
- Stop Loss lines (Red dashed)
- Take Profit lines (Green dashed and dotted)
- Real-time status dashboard showing:
* Number of pivots detected
* Wave count progress (X/5)
* Pattern validation status
* Market trend direction
* Signal active status
* Helpful tips and guidance
OPTIMAL USAGE
-------------
• Timeframes: H1, H4, D1 (avoid M1-M5 due to noise)
• Markets: Forex majors (EUR/USD, GBP/USD), Gold (XAU/USD), Major Cryptocurrencies
• Market Conditions: Strong trending markets (avoid ranging/sideways conditions)
• Risk Management: Never risk more than 1-2% per trade
• Position Sizing: Based on calculated Stop Loss distance
CONFIGURATION PARAMETERS
------------------------
Trend Detection:
- MA Fast Period (default: 20)
- MA Slow Period (default: 50)
- MACD settings (12/26/9)
Swing Detection:
- Pivot Lookback Left/Right (default: 10/10, reduce to 5/5 for M15)
- Min Swing Size % (default: 0.1%, reduce to 0.05% for M15)
Wave Detection:
- Min Wave Size % (default: 0.5%, reduce to 0.2-0.3% for smaller timeframes)
Risk Management:
- SL Buffer % (default: 0.1%)
- TP1 Fibonacci Ratio (default: 1.618)
- Min Risk/Reward (default: 1.5)
Visualization:
- Toggle visibility for MAs, ZigZag, Wave Labels, Signals, SL/TP
- Customizable colors for all elements
- Optional trend background coloring
IMPORTANT NOTES
---------------
• Elliott Wave analysis is subjective - this indicator implements one specific interpretation
• Works best in trending markets; automatically suppresses signals in sideways conditions
• Signals are NOT repainting after pivot confirmation
• Not a "holy grail" - combine with other analysis and proper risk management
• Requires patience - quality setups are infrequent but high-probability
• Always backtest on historical data before live trading
ELLIOTT WAVE THEORY BACKGROUND
------------------------------
Elliott Wave Theory, developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott in the 1930s, proposes that market prices move in predictable wave patterns driven by investor psychology. An impulse wave consists of five sub-waves (three in the trend direction, two corrections), followed by a three-wave correction. This indicator automates the identification of these patterns and validates them against Elliott's original rules.
DISCLAIMER
----------
This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own analysis and never trade with money you cannot afford to lose. The indicator provides signals based on technical analysis patterns and does not constitute financial advice.
VERSION
-------
v1.0 - Initial Release
Pine Script v5
Created: 2024
SUPPORT
-------
For detailed usage instructions, refer to the included documentation:
- usage_guide.md - Complete user manual with examples
- elliott_rules.md - Elliott Wave theory reference and implementation details
Victoria Overlay - HTF 200 + VWAP + ATR Stop + MA TrioConsolidated road to minions
Buy Setup:
EMA1 crosses above SMA3.
RSI confirms above 50.
Volume increasing (confirming momentum).
Candle closes above SMA1 base.
Sell Setup:
EMA1 crosses below SMA3.
RSI drops below 50 or exits overbought.
Volume confirms (declining or reversing).
Candle closes below SMA1 base.
Tips:
Think of EMA1 as the scalper’s trigger.
SMA3 is your momentum check.
SMA1 (base) = short-term bias.
Avoid entries during low-volume chop.
Use for day trades or tight scalps; exits happen fast.
Overlay (Smoothed Heikin Ashi + Swing + VWAP + ATR Stop + 200-SMA)
Purpose: Multi-layer trend confirmation + clean structure.
Type: Swing alignment tool.
🟩 BUY / CALL Conditions
Green “Buy (Gated)” arrow appears.
Price is above VWAP, above 200-SMA, and above ATR stop.
ATR stop (green line) sits under price → support confirmed.
Heikin-Ashi candles are green/lime.
Bias label says “Above VWAP | Above 200 | Swing Up”.
🟥 SELL / PUT Conditions
Red “Sell (Gated)” arrow appears.
Price is below VWAP, below 200-SMA, and below ATR stop.
ATR stop (red line) sits above price → resistance confirmed.
Heikin-Ashi candles are red.
Bias label says “Below VWAP | Below 200 | Swing Down”.
Exit / Risk Control:
Close position when price crosses ATR stop.
If Heikin candles flip color, momentum is reversing.
Best Use Cases:
For next-day or multi-hour swing entries.
Use ATR Stop for dynamic stop loss.
Stay out when the bias label is mixed (e.g. “Above VWAP | Below 200 | Swing Down”).
Pro Tip:
On big news days, let VWAP reset post-open before acting on arrows — filters fake signals.
RSI Panel Pro (v6)
Purpose: Strength + exhaustion confirmation.
Type: Momentum filter.
Key Levels:
Overbought: 80+ → take profits soon.
Oversold: 20– → watch for bounce setups.
Bull regime: RSI above 60 = momentum strong.
Bear regime: RSI below 40 = weakness.
Buy / Entry Signals:
RSI crosses up from below 40 or 20.
RSI line is above RSI-EMA (gray line).
Higher timeframe RSI (if used) is also rising.
Trim / Exit:
RSI drops under 60 after being strong.
RSI crosses below its EMA.
Sell / Put Setup:
RSI fails at 60 or drops below 40.
RSI crosses under EMA after a bounce.
Tips:
Pair RSI panel with Victoria Overlay — only take gated buys when RSI confirms.
RSI < 40 but above 20 = “loading zone” for reversals.
RSI > 70 = overextended → wait for confirmation before entering.
Combined Execution Rules
Goal What to Watch Action
Entry (CALL) EMA1 > SMA3, Buy (Gated) arrow, RSI rising > 50 Buy call / open long
Entry (PUT) EMA1 < SMA3, Sell (Gated) arrow, RSI < 50 Buy put / open short
Exit Early Price crosses ATR stop or RSI flips under EMA Exit trade / protect gains
Trend Filter VWAP + 200-SMA alignment Only trade in that direction
Avoid Trades Conflicting bias label or low volume Stay flat
Pro Tips
VWAP → Intraday mean: above = bullish control, below = bearish control.
ATR Stop → Dynamic trailing stop: never widen it manually.
Smoothed Heikin-Ashi → filters noise: trend stays until color flips twice.
RSI Panel → confirms whether to hold through pullbacks.
If RSI and Overlay disagree — wait, not trade.
Average Price Calculator / VisualizerDCA Average Price Calculator - Visualize Your Breakeven & TP!
Ever wished you could visualize your trades and instantly see your average entry price right here on TradingView? Especially if you're a DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) trader like me, tracking multiple entries can be a hassle. You're constantly switching to a spreadsheet or calculator to figure out your breakeven and take-profit levels. Well I've developed this DCA Average Price Calculator to solve exactly that problem, bringing all your position planning directly onto your chart.
What It Does
This indicator is a interactive tool designed to calculate the weighted average price of up to 10 separate trade entries. It then plots your crucial breakeven (average price) and a customizable take-profit target directly on your chart, giving you a clear visual of your position.
Key Features
Up to 10 Order Entries: Plan complex DCA strategies with support for up to ten individual buys.
Flexible Size Input: Enter your position size in either USD Amount or Number of Shares/Contracts. The script is smart enough to know which one you're using.
Instant Average Price Calculation: Your weighted average price (your breakeven point) is calculated and plotted in real-time as a clean yellow line.
Customizable Take-Profit Target: Set your desired profit percentage and see your take-profit level instantly plotted as a green line.
Detailed On-Chart Labels: Each order you plot is marked with a detailed label showing the entry price, the number of shares purchased, and the total USD value of that entry.
Clean & Uncluttered UI: The main Average and TP labels are intelligently shifted to the right, ensuring they don't overlap with your entry markers, keeping your chart readable.
How to Use It - Simple Steps
Add the indicator to your chart.
Open the script's 'Settings' menu.
In the 'Take Profit' section, set your desired profit percentage (e.g., 1 for 1%).
Under the 'Orders' section, begin filling in your entries. For each 'Order #', enter the Price.
Next, enter the size. You can either fill in the 'Size (USD)' box OR the '/ Shares' box. Leave the one you're not using at 0.
As you add orders, the 'Avg' (yellow) and 'TP' (green) lines, along with the blue order labels, will automatically appear and adjust on your chart!
Who Is This For?
DCA Traders: This is the ultimate tool for you!
Position Traders: Keep track of scaling into a larger position over time.
Manual Backtesters: Quickly simulate and visualize how a series of buys would have played out.
Any Trader who wants a quick and easy way to calculate their average entry without leaving TradingView.
I built this tool to improve my own trading workflow, and I hope it helps you as much as it has helped me. If you find it useful, please consider giving it a 'Like' and feel free to leave any feedback or suggestions in the comments!
Happy trading
BB SPY Mean Reversion Investment StrategySummary
Mean reversion first, continuation second. This strategy targets equities and ETFs on daily timeframes. It waits for price to revert from a Bollinger location with candle and EMA agreement, then manages risk with ATR based exits. Uniqueness comes from two elements working together. One, an adaptive band multiplier driven by volatility of volatility that expands or contracts the envelope as conditions change. Two, a bias memory that re arms the same direction after any stop, target, or time exit until a true opposite signal appears. Add it to a clean chart, use the markers and levels, and select on bar close for conservative alerts. Shapes can move while the bar is open and settle on close.
Scope and intent
• Markets. Currently adapted for SPY, needs to be optimized for other assets
• Timeframes. Daily primary. Other frames are possible but not the default
• Default demo. SPY on daily
• Purpose. Trade mean reversion entries that can chain into a longer swing by splitting holds into ATR or time segments
Originality and usefulness
• Novelty. Adaptive band width from volatility of volatility plus a persistent bias array that keeps the original direction alive across sequential entries until an opposite setup is confirmed
• Failure modes mitigated. False starts in chop are reduced by candle color and EMA location. Missed continuation after a take profit or stop is addressed by the re arm engine. Oversized envelopes during quiet regimes are avoided by the adaptive multiplier
• Testability. Every module has Inputs and visible levels so users can see why a suggestion appears
• Portable yardstick. All risk and targets are expressed in ATR units
Method overview in plain language
The engine measures where price sits relative to Bollinger bands, confirms with candle color and EMA location, requires ADX for shorts(in our case long close since we use it currently as long only), and optionally requires a trend or mean reversion regime using band width percent rank and basis slope. Risk uses ATR for stop, target, and optional breakeven. A small array stores the last confirmed direction. While flat, the engine keeps a pending order in that direction. The array flips only when a true opposite setup appears.
Base measures
• Range basis. True Range smoothed over a user defined ATR Length
• Return basis. Not required
Components
• Bollinger envelope. SMA length and standard deviation multiplier. Entry is based on cross of close through the band with location bias
• Candle and EMA filter. Close relative to open and close relative to EMA align direction
• ADX gate for shorts. Requires minimum trend strength for short trades
• Adaptive multiplier. Band width scales using volatility of volatility so envelopes breathe with conditions
• Regime gate optional. Band width percent rank and basis slope identify trend or mean reversion regimes
• Risk manager. ATR stop, ATR target, optional breakeven, optional time exit
• Bias memory. Array stores last confirmed direction and re arms entries while flat
Fusion rule
Minimum satisfied gates count style. All required gates must be true. Optional gates are controlled in Inputs. Bias memory never overrides an opposite confirmed setup.
Signal rule
• Long setup when close crosses up through the lower band, the bar closes green, and close is above the long EMA
• Short setup when close crosses down through the upper band, the bar closes red, close is below the short EMA, and ADX is above the minimum
• While flat the model keeps a pending order in the stored direction until a true opposite setup appears
• IN LONG or IN SHORT describes states between entry and exit
What you will see on the chart
• Markers for Long and Short setups
• Exit markers from ATR or time rules
• Reference levels for entry, stop, and target
• Bollinger bands and optional adaptive bands
Inputs with guidance
Setup
• Signal timeframe. Uses the chart timeframe
• Invert direction optional. Flips long and short
Logic
• BB Length. Typical 10 to 50. Higher smooths more
• BB Mult. Typical 1.0 to 2.5. Higher widens entries
• EMA Length long. Typical 10 to 50
• EMA Length short. Typical 5 to 30
• ADX Minimum for short. Typical 15 to 35
Filters
• Regime Type. none or trend or mean reversion
• Rank Lookback. Typical 100 to 300
• Basis Slope Length and Threshold. Larger values reduce false trends
Risk
• ATR Length. Typical 10 to 21
• ATR Stop Mult. Typical 1.0 to 3.0
• ATR Take Profit Mult. Typical 2.0 to 5.0
• Breakeven Trigger R. Move stop to entry after the chosen multiple
• Time Exit. Minimum bars and extension when profit exceeds a fraction of ATR
Bias and rearm
• Bias flips kept. Array depth
• Keep rearm when flat. Maintain a pending order while flat
UI
• Show markers and levels. Clean defaults
Usage recipes
Alerts update in real time and can change while the bar forms. Select on bar close for conservative workflows.
Properties visible in this publication
• Initial capital 25000
• Base currency USD
• If any higher timeframe calls are enabled, request.security uses lookahead off
• Commission 0.03 percent
• Slippage 3 ticks
• Default order size method Percent of equity with value 5
• Pyramiding 0
• Process orders on close On
• Bar magnifier Off
• Recalculate after order is filled Off
• Calc on every tick Off
Realism and responsible publication
No performance claims. Costs and fills vary by venue. Shapes can move intrabar and settle on close. Strategies use standard candles only.
Honest limitations and failure modes
High impact releases and thin liquidity can break assumptions. Gap heavy symbols may require larger ATR. Very quiet regimes can reduce contrast in the mean reversion signal. If stop and target can both be touched inside one bar, outcome follows the TradingView order model for that bar path.
Regimes with extreme one sided trend and very low volatility can reduce mean reversion edges. Results vary by symbol and venue. Past results never guarantee future outcomes.
Open source reuse and credits
None.
Backtest realism
Costs are realistic for liquid equities. Sizing does not exceed five percent per trade by default. Any departure should be justified by the user.
If you got any questions please le me know
[AA] - Market Valuation (Mean Based) - Market Valuation (Mean Based)
What it does
This indicator estimates whether price is overvalued, undervalued, or fairly valued relative to its structural mean across multiple lookback windows. It builds a single normalized oscillator from short-, mid-, and long-term ranges so traders can quickly see when price is stretched away from equilibrium.
This is not a mashup of existing tools. It’s a custom mean-deviation model that aggregates multi-window range positioning into one score.
How it works (concepts)
For each lookback length (13, 25, 30, 50, 100, 200):
Range & midpoint:
Highest high H and lowest low L.
Structural midpoint Mid = (H + L)/2.
Normalized deviation:
Dev = (Close − Mid) / (H − L) → location of price within its own range.
Aggregation:
The oscillator z_struct is the average of the deviations from the five windows.
Result: a smoothed, dimensionless value (roughly −1 to +1 in typical markets) showing multi-horizon displacement from the mean.
Plots & levels
Oscillator (area): z_struct
Reference lines: +0.40 (OB), 0.00 (equilibrium), −0.30 (OS)
Coloring:
Red when z_struct > OB (extended above mean)
Blue when z_struct < OS (extended below mean)
White in between
Suggested use
Mean reversion context: Fade extremes in range-bound conditions; take profits into OB/OS.
Trend awareness: In strong trends, extremes can persist—use levels as exhaustion context rather than standalone entry.
Filter/confirm: Combine with your trend filter or structure tools to time pullbacks and avoid chasing extended moves.
Inputs
Lookbacks: 13, 25, 30, 50, 100, 200
Thresholds: OB = 0.40, OS = −0.30
Notes & limitations
Works on the current symbol/timeframe only; no security() calls and no repainting beyond normal bar completion.
In very tight or flat ranges (H ≈ L), normalized deviations can become sensitive; consider longer windows or higher timeframes.
This is an indicator, not a strategy. No signals are generated; use with risk management.
Originality statement
This script implements an original, multi-window mean-deviation aggregation. It does not replicate a built-in or a public indicator; its purpose is to quantify cross-horizon valuation in a single, normalized measure.
ATR SL/TP Precision Zones (Dots)ATR SL/TP Precision Zones (Dots) is a volatility-based tool designed to help traders set accurate Stop Loss and Take Profit levels based on real market volatility — not fixed pips or emotion.
This indicator uses ATR (Average True Range) multiplied by 1.2 to calculate dynamic distance bands.
Instead of drawing a ribbon or channel, it places simple dots above and below each candle:
Upper Dot (Green) → Suggested Take Profit / Price Stretch Zone
Lower Dot (Red) → Suggested Stop Loss Cushion / Support Expansion Zone
Because ATR measures market volatility, these dots expand during high volatility and tighten during slow markets, helping traders avoid stop-loss hunts and premature exits.
Why This Works
Most traders lose because:
They set SL too close → stopped out by noise
They set TP too far → price never reaches it
This tool calibrates those distances automatically based on real price movement behavior.
ATR = volatility
Volatility = market breathing room
This indicator ensures your trade has room to breathe, increasing win consistency.
Best Use Cases
Scalping
Swing trading
Trend continuation entries
Reversal confirmations with support/resistance
Works on Crypto / Forex / Stocks / Futures
PSAR with ATR Trailing Stop + SMA Filter📈 Strategy Overview: PSAR + 6×ATR Trailing Stop with SMA Filter
This strategy is built around the principle of “Cut the losers, let the winners run” — a disciplined, trend-following approach that combines the Parabolic SAR indicator with dynamic risk management and a Simple Moving Average (SMA) trend filter.
🔍 Strategy Logic
Trend Filter Trades are only taken in the direction of the prevailing trend, defined by a user-selected SMA (default: 100).
✅ Long trades only when price is above the SMA
✅ Short trades only when price is below the SMA
Entry Signal: A trade is triggered when the Parabolic SAR flips to the opposite side of the price bars, signaling a potential trend reversal.
Stop Loss: The stop loss is dynamically set at 6×ATR from the entry price. This adapts to market volatility and is recalculated every bar — effectively acting as a trailing stop.
Exit Logic: There is no fixed take profit. The trade remains open until the trailing stop is hit — allowing winners to run and losers to be cut quickly.
Risk Management: Each trade risks 0.5% of total equity, ensuring consistent position sizing and capital preservation.
📊 Visual Elements
PSAR dots mark trend direction changes
SMA line shows the broader trend filter
Trailing stop crosses (with 50% opacity) indicate the current stop level without cluttering the chart
⚙️ Customizable Inputs
PSAR parameters: Start, Increment, Maximum
ATR length and multiplier
SMA length
Risk percentage per trade
This strategy is ideal for traders who want to stay aligned with the trend, automate disciplined exits, and avoid emotional decision-making. Clean, simple, and powerful.
Wishing you calm and successful trades!
TMB Invest - Smart Money Concept StrategyEnglish:
**Quick Overview**
The "TMB_SMC_Strategy_v1.1.3" combines a classic trend filter using two EMAs with contrarian RSI entries and simple SMC elements (Fair Value Gaps & Order Blocks). Stop-loss and take-profit orders are volatility-adaptive and controlled via the ATR. An integrated dashboard displays the setup status, stop-loss/take-profit levels, entry reference, and trend, RSI, and ATR values.
---
## Operating Principle
1. **Trend Filter:** A fast EMA (default 50) is compared to a slow EMA (default 200). Trading occurs only in the direction of the trend: long in uptrends, short in downtrends.
2. **Timing via RSI:** Contrarian entries within the trend. Go long when the RSI is below a buy level (default 40); Short when the RSI is above a sell level (standard 60).
3. **Structure Check (SMC Proxy):** An "FVG Touch" serves as additional confirmation that an inefficient price zone has been tested. Order blocks are visualized for guidance but are not a direct entry trigger.
4. **Risk Management via ATR:** Stop-loss and take-profit levels are set as multipliers of the current ATR (e.g., SL = 1×ATR, TP = 2×ATR). This allows target and risk distances to adjust to market volatility.
5. **Simple Position Logic:** Only one position is held at a time (no pyramiding). After entry, stop and limit orders (bracket exit) are automatically placed.
---
## Input Values
* **EMA Fast / EMA Slow:** Lengths of the moving averages for the trend filter.
* **RSI Length / Levels:** Length of the RSI as well as buy and sell thresholds (contra signals within the trend direction).
* **Take Profit (RR) / Stop Loss (RR):** ATR multipliers for TP and SL.
* **Show FVGs & Order Blocks:** Toggles the visual SMC elements (zones/boxes) on or off.
--
## Signals & Execution
* **Long Setup:** Uptrend (fast EMA above slow EMA) **and** RSI below the buy level **and** a current FVG signal in a bullish direction.
* **Short Setup:** Downtrend (fast EMA below slow EMA) **and** RSI above the sell level **and** a current FVG touch in a bearish direction.
* **Entry & Exit:** If the setup is met, the market is entered; stop-loss/take-profit orders are placed immediately according to ATR multiples.
--
## Visualization
* **EMAs:** The fast and slow EMAs are plotted to illustrate the trend.
* **FVGs:** Fair Value Gaps are drawn as semi-transparent boxes in the trend color and projected slightly into the future.
* **Order Blocks:** Potential order block zones from the previous candle are visually highlighted (for informational purposes only).
---
## Integrated Dashboard
A compact table dashboard (bottom left) displays:
* Current **Setup Status** (Long/Short active, Long/Short ready, No Setup),
* **Stop-Loss**, **Take-Profit**, and **Entry Reference**,
* **Trend Status** (Bull/Bear/Sideways),
* **RSI Value**, and **ATR Value**.
Active long/short positions are highlighted in color (green/red).
--
## Practical Guide
1. **Place on Chart** and select the desired timeframe.
2. **Calibrate Parameters** (EMA lengths, RSI levels, ATR multipliers) to match the market and timeframe.
3. **Backtest** across different market phases; prioritize robustness over maximum curve fit.
4. **Fine-Tuning:**
* Shorter EMAs are often useful intraday (e.g., 20/100 or 34/144).
* Adjust RSI levels to market characteristics (45/55 for aggressive trading, 30/70 for conservative trading).
* Increase or decrease ATR multipliers depending on volatility/trading style.
--
## Notes, Limitations & Extensions
* **FVG Definition:** The FVG detection used here is intentionally simplified. Those who prefer a more rigorous approach can switch to a 3-candle definition and fill levels.
* **Order Blocks:** These primarily serve as a guide. Integration into entry/exit logic (e.g., retests) is possible as an extension.
* **Backtest Realism:** Fills may differ from the displayed closing price. For greater accuracy, intrabar backtests or an entry indicator based on the average position price are conceivable.
* **Alerts:** Currently, no alert conditions are defined; these can be added for long/short setups and status messages.
* **Position Management:** By default, no scaling is performed. Partial sales, trailing stops, or multiple entries can be added.
---
## Purpose & Benefits
The strategy offers a clear, modular framework: trend filter (direction), RSI contra timing (entry), SMC proxy via FVG Touch (structure), and ATR-based exits (risk adaptation). This makes it robust, easy to understand, and highly extensible—both for discretionary traders who appreciate visual SMC elements and for systematic testers who prefer a clean, parameterizable foundation.
NY VIX Channel Trend US Futures Day Trade StrategyNY VIX Channel Trend Strategy
Summary in one paragraph
Session anchored intraday strategy for index futures such as ES and NQ on one to fifteen minute charts. It acts only after the first configurable window of New York Regular Trading Hours and uses a VIX derived daily implied move to form a realistic channel from the session open. Originality comes from using a pure implied volatility yardstick as portable support and resistance, then committing in the direction of the first window close relative to the open. Add it to a clean chart and trade the simple visuals. For conservative alerts use on bar close.
Scope and intent
• Markets. Index futures ES and NQ
• Timeframes. One to thirty minutes
• Default demo. ES1 on five minutes
• Purpose. Provide a portable intraday yardstick for entries and exits without curve fitting
• Limits. This is a strategy. Orders are simulated on standard candles
Originality and usefulness
• Unique concept. A VIX only channel anchored at 09:30 New York plus a single window trend test
• Addresses. False urgency at session open and unrealistic bands from arbitrary multipliers
• Testability. Every input is visible and the channel is plotted so users can audit behavior
• Portable yardstick. Daily implied move equals VIX percent divided by square root of two hundred fifty two
• Protected status. None. Method and use are fully disclosed
Method overview in plain language
Take the daily VIX or VIX9D value, convert it to a daily fraction by dividing by square root of two hundred fifty two, then anchor a symmetric channel at the New York session open. Observe the first N minutes. If that window closes above the open the bias is long. If it closes below the open the bias is short. One trade per session. Exits occur at the channel boundary or at a bracket based on a user selected VIX factor. Positions are closed a set number of minutes before the session ends.
Base measures
Return basis. The daily implied move unit equals VIX percent divided by square root of two hundred fifty two and serves as the distance unit for targets and stops.
Components
• VIX Channel. Top, mid, bottom lines anchored at 09:30 New York. No extra multipliers
• Window Trend. Close of the first N minutes relative to the session open sets direction
• Risk Bracket. Take profit and stop loss equal to VIX unit times user factor
• Session Window. Uses the exchange time of the chart
Fusion rule
Minimum gates count equals one. The trade only arms after the window has elapsed and a direction exists. One entry per session.
Signal rule
• Long when the window close is above the session open and the window has completed
• Short when the window close is below the session open and the window has completed
• Exit on channel touch. Long exits at the top. Short exits at the bottom
• Flat thirty minutes before the session close or at the user setting
Inputs with guidance
Setup
• Use VIX9D. Width source. Typical true for fast tone or false for baseline
• Use daily OPEN. Toggle for sensitivity to overnight changes
Logic
• Window minutes. Five to one hundred twenty. Larger values delay entries and reduce whipsaw
• VIX factor for TP. Zero point five to two. Raising it widens the profit target
• VIX factor for SL. Zero point five to two. Raising it widens the stop
• Exit minutes before close. Fifteen to ninety. Raising it exits earlier
Properties visible in this publication
• Initial capital one hundred thousand USD
• Base currency USD
• request.security uses lookahead off
• Commission cash per contract two point five $ per each contract. Slippage one tick
• Default order size method FIXED with value one contract. Pyramiding zero. Process orders on close ON. Bar magnifier OFF. Recalculate after order is filled OFF. Calc on every tick ON
Realism and responsible publication
No performance claims. Past results never guarantee future outcomes. Fills and slippage vary by venue. Shapes can move while a bar forms and settle on close. Strategy uses standard candles.
Honest limitations and failure modes
Economic releases and thin liquidity can break the channel. Very quiet regimes can reduce signal contrast. Session windows follow the exchange time of the chart. If both stop and target can be hit within one bar, assume stop first for conservative reading without bar magnifier.
Works best in liquid hours of New York RTH. Very large gaps and surprise news may exceed the implied channel. Always validate on the symbols you trade.
Entries and exits
• Entry logic. After the first window, go long if the window close is above the session open, go short if below
• Exit logic. Long exits at the channel top or at the take profit or stop. Short exits at the channel bottom or at the take profit or stop. Flat before session close by the configured minutes
• Risk model. Initial stop and target based on the VIX unit times user factors. No trail and no break even. No cooldown
• Tie handling. Treat as stop first for conservative interpretation
Position sizing
Fixed size one contract per trade. Target risk per trade should generally remain near one percent of account equity. Risk is based on the daily volatility value, the max loss from the tests for one year duration with 5min chart was 4%, while the avg loss was below <1% of the total capital.
If you have any questions please let me know. Thank you for coming by !
ADX Color Change by BehemothI find this tool to be the most valuable and accurate entry point indicator along with moving averages and the VWAP.
ADX Color Indicator - Controls & Intraday Trading Benefits
Indicator Controls:
1. ADX Length (default: 14)
- Controls the calculation period for ADX
- Lower values (7-10) = more sensitive, faster signals (better for scalping)
- Higher values (14-20) = smoother, fewer false signals (better for swing trades)
- *Intraday tip:* Try 10-14 for most intraday timeframes
2. Show Threshold Levels (default: On)
- Displays the 20 and 25 horizontal lines
- Helps you quickly identify when ADX crosses key strength levels
3. Use Custom Timeframe (default: Off)
- Allows viewing higher timeframe ADX on lower timeframe charts
- *Example:* Trade on 5-min chart but see 15-min or 1-hour ADX
4. Custom Timeframe
- Select any timeframe: 1m, 5m, 15m, 30m, 1H, 4H, D, etc.
- *Intraday tip:* Use 15m or 1H ADX on 5m charts for better trend context
5. Show +DI and -DI (default: Off)
- Shows directional movement indicators
- Green line (+DI) > Red line (-DI) = bullish trend
- Red line (-DI) > Green line (+DI) = bearish trend
6. Show Background Zon es (default: Off)
- Visual background colors for quick trend strength identification
- Green = strong trend (ADX > 25)
- Yellow = moderate trend (ADX 20-25)
Intraday Trading Benefits:
1. Avoid Choppy Markets
- When ADX < 20 (no background color), market is ranging
- Reduces false breakout trades and whipsaws
- Save time and capital by stepping aside during low-quality setups
2. Identify High-Probability Trend Trades
- **Green line + Green zone** = strong trend building, look for pullback entries
- Yellow line crossing above 20 = early trend formation signal
- Catch trends early when ADX starts rising from below 20
3. Multi-Timeframe Analysis
- Use custom timeframe to align with higher timeframe trends
- *Example:* If 1H ADX shows green (strong trend), take breakout trades on 5m chart in same direction
- Increases win rate by trading with the bigger picture
4. Exit Signals
- When ADX turns red (falling), trend is weakening
- Consider tightening stops or taking profits
- Avoid entering new positions when ADX is declining
5. Quick Visual Confirmation
- Color coding eliminates need to analyze numbers
- Instant recognition: Green = go, Yellow = caution, Red = trend dying
- Faster decision-making during fast market moves
6. Scalping Strategy
- Set ADX length to 7-10 for sensitive signals
- Only scalp when ADX is rising (blue, yellow, or green)
- Exit when ADX turns red
7. Breakout Confirmation
- Wait for ADX to rise above 20 after a breakout
- Filters false breakouts in ranging markets
- Yellow or green color confirms momentum behind the move
Optimal Intraday Settings:
- Day Trading (5-15 min charts):** ADX Length = 10-14
- Scalping (1-5 min charts):** ADX Length = 7-10, watch custom 15m timeframe
- Swing Intraday (30min-1H charts):** ADX Length = 14-20
Simple Trading Rules:
✅ Trade: ADX rising + above 20 (yellow or green)
⚠️ Caution: ADX flat or just crossed 20
❌ Avoid:*ADX falling (red) or below 20
The key advantage is staying out of low-quality, choppy price action which is where most intraday traders lose money!
Enhanced MA Crossover Pro📝 Strategy Summary: Enhanced MA Crossover Pro
This strategy is an advanced, highly configurable moving average (MA) crossover system designed for algorithmic trading. It uses the crossover of two customizable MAs (a "Fast" MA 1 and a "Slow" MA 2) as its core entry signal, but aggressively integrates multiple technical filters, time controls, and dynamic position management to create a robust and comprehensive trading system.
💡 Core Logic
Entry Signal: A bullish crossover (MA1 > MA2) generates a Long signal, and a bearish crossover (MA1 < MA2) generates a Short signal. Users can opt to use MA crossovers from a Higher Timeframe (HTF) for the entry signal.
Confirmation/Filters: The basic MA cross signal is filtered by several optional indicators (see Filters section below) to ensure trades align with a broader trend or momentum context.
Position Management: Trades are managed with a sophisticated system of Stop Loss, Take Profit, Trailing Stops, and Breakeven stops that can be fixed, ATR-based, or dynamically adjusted.
Risk Management: Daily limits are enforced for maximum profit/loss and maximum trades per day.
⚙️ Key Features and Customization
1. Moving Averages
Primary MAs (MA1 & MA2): Highly configurable lengths (default 8 & 20) and types: EMA, WMA, SMA, or SMMA/RMA.
Higher Timeframe (HTF) MAs: Optional MAs calculated on a user-defined resolution (e.g., "60" for 1-hour) for use as an entry signal or as a trend confirmation filter.
2. Multi-Filter System
The entry signal can be filtered by the following optional conditions:
SMA Filter: Price must be above a 200-period SMA for long trades, and below it for short trades.
VWAP Filter: Price must be above VWAP for long trades, and below it for short trades.
RSI Filter: Long trades are blocked if RSI is overbought (default 70); short trades are blocked if RSI is oversold (default 30).
MACD Filter: Requires the MACD Line to be above the Signal Line for long trades (and vice versa for short trades).
HTF Confirmation: Requires the HTF MA1 to be above HTF MA2 for long entries (and vice versa).
3. Dynamic Stop and Target Management (S/L & T/P)
The strategy provides extensive control over exits:
Stop Loss Methods:
Fixed: Fixed tick amount.
ATR: Based on a multiple of the Average True Range (ATR).
Capped ATR: ATR stop limited by a maximum fixed tick amount.
Exit on Close Cross MA: Position is closed if the price crosses back over the chosen MA (MA1 or MA2).
Breakeven Stop: A stop can be moved to the entry price once a trigger distance (fixed ticks or Adaptive Breakeven based on ATR%) is reached.
Trailing Stop: Can be fixed or ATR-based, with an optional feature to auto-tighten the trailing multiplier after the breakeven condition is met.
Profit Target: Can be a fixed tick amount or a dynamic target based on an ATR multiplier.
4. Time and Session Control
Trading Session: Trades are only taken between defined Start/End Hours and Minutes (e.g., 9:30 to 16:00).
Forced Close: All open positions are closed near the end of the session (e.g., 15:45).
Trading Days: Allows specific days of the week to be enabled or disabled for trading.
5. Risk and Position Limits
Daily Profit/Loss Limits: The strategy tracks daily realized and unrealized PnL in ticks and will close all positions and block new entries if the user-defined maximum profit or maximum loss is hit.
Max Trades Per Day: Limits the number of executed trades in a single day.
🎨 Outputs and Alerts
Plots: Plots the MA1, MA2, SMA, VWAP, and HTF MAs (if enabled) on the chart.
Shapes: Plots visual markers (BUY/SELL labels) on the bar where the MA crossover occurs.
Trailing Stop: Plots the dynamic trailing stop level when a position is open.
Alerts: Generates JSON-formatted alerts for entry ({"action":"buy", "price":...}) and exit ({"action":"exit", "position":"long", "price":...}).
Central Limit Theorem Reversion IndicatorDear TV community, let me introduce you to the first-ever Central Limit Theorem indicator on TradingView.
The Central Limit Theorem is used in statistics and it can be quite useful in quant trading and understanding market behaviors.
In short, the CLT states: "When you take repeated samples from any population and calculate their averages, those averages will form a normal (bell curve) distribution—no matter what the original data looks like."
In this CLT indicator, I use statistical theory to identify high-probability mean reversion opportunities in the markets. It calculates statistical confidence bands and z-scores to identify when price movements deviate significantly from their expected distribution, signaling potential reversion opportunities with quantifiable probability levels.
Mathematical Foundation
The Central Limit Theorem (CLT) says that when you average many data points together, those averages will form a predictable bell-curve pattern, even if the original data is completely random and unpredictable (which often is in the markets). This works no matter what you're measuring, and it gets more reliable as you use more data points.
Why using it for trading?
Individual price movements seem random and chaotic, but when we look at the average of many price movements, we can actually predict how they should behave statistically. This lets us spot when prices have moved "too far" from what's normal—and those extreme moves tend to snap back (mean reversion).
Key Formula:
Z = (X̄ - μ) / (σ / √n)
Where:
- X̄ = Sample mean (average return over n periods)
- μ = Population mean (long-term expected return)
- σ = Population standard deviation (volatility)
- n = Sample size
- σ/√n = Standard error of the mean
How I Apply CLT
Step 1: Calculate Returns
Measures how much price changed from one bar to the next (using logarithms for better statistical properties)
Step 2: Average Recent Returns
Takes the average of the last n returns (e.g., last 100 bars). This is your "sample mean."
Step 3: Find What's "Normal"
Looks at historical data to determine: a) What the typical average return should be (the long-term mean) and b) How volatile the market usually is (standard deviation)
Step 4: Calculate Standard Error
Determines how much sample averages naturally vary. Larger samples = smaller expected variation.
Step 5: Calculate Z-Score
Measures how unusual the current situation is.
Step 6: Draw Confidence Bands
Converts these statistical boundaries into actual price levels on your chart, showing where price is statistically expected to stay 95% and 99% of the time.
Interpretation & Usage
The Z-Score:
The z-score tells you how statistically unusual the current price deviation is:
|Z| < 1.0 → Normal behavior, no action
|Z| = 1.0 to 1.96 → Moderate deviation, watch closely
|Z| = 1.96 to 2.58 → Significant deviation (95%+), consider entry
|Z| > 2.58 → Extreme deviation (99%+), high probability setup
The Confidence Bands
- Upper Red Bands: 95% and 99% overbought zones → Expect mean reversion downward as the price is not likely to cross these lines.
- Center Gray Line: Statistical expectation (fair value)
- Lower Blue Bands: 95% and 99% oversold zones → Expect mean reversion upward
Trading Logic:
- When price exceeds the upper 95% band (z-score > +1.96), there's only a 5% probability this is random noise → Strong sell/short signal
- When price falls below the lower 95% band (z-score < -1.96), there's a 95% statistical expectation of upward reversion → Strong buy/long signal
Background Gradient
The background color provides real-time visual feedback:
- Blue shades: Oversold conditions, expect upward reversion
- Red shades: Overbought conditions, expect downward reversion
- Intensity: Darker colors indicate stronger statistical significance
Trading Strategy Examples
Hypothetically, this is how the indicator could be used:
- Long: Z-score < -1.96 (below 95% confidence band)
- Short: Z-score > +1.96 (above 95% confidence band)
- Take profit when price returns to center line (Z ≈ 0)
Input Parameters
Sample Size (n) - Default: 100
Lookback Period (m) - Default: 100
You can also create alerts based on the indicator.
Final notes:
- The indicator uses logarithmic returns for better statistical properties
- Converts statistical bands back to price space for practical use
- Adaptive volatility: Bands automatically widen in high volatility, narrow in low volatility
- No repainting: yay! All calculations use historical data only
Feedback is more than welcome!
Henri
